01What changed
02Economies
Vital-signs score, 0–100. 50 is normal for that country. Tap one for the full readout.
03Macro scorecard
The headline numbers and the classic formulas, side by side.
04Debt, deficits and balances
Annual. IMF World Economic Outlook (current-year estimates marked *) and World Bank.
What each economy is made of
GDP = consumption + investment + government + net exports, as % of GDP.
Debt math
Is each government's debt ratio on track to rise or fall? From bond yields, growth and inflation.
05Global trade
Cargo through each region's busiest ports vs the same days a year ago.
Merchandise trade in dollars
Monthly goods exports and imports in US$ (OECD international merchandise trade).
Port cargo: imports vs exports by region
Shipping chokepoints
Ships through the world's key straits and canals vs a year ago.
06Energy and transport
Electricity demand
Power use is one of the fastest real-time signals of economic activity. Last 3 months vs the same 3 months a year ago. Ember, 88 countries.
US freight by mode
Rail, air and water freight. US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, monthly. No free global source exists for air cargo or rail; more countries will be added as open data allows.
07Commodities
Price vs a year ago, next to how much of that kind of cargo is moving by sea. Monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet.
08Markets
Global interest rates
Central bank policy rates (BIS) and 10-year government bond yields (OECD). Real rate = policy rate − inflation. Curve = 10-year − policy.
Currencies (spot)
US Treasury curve
09People and health
The slow-moving foundations. World Bank, latest year.
10Method
The score
Up to four pillars per economy: output (factory output growth, or GDP growth, blended with electricity demand), jobs (12-month change in unemployment, inverted), prices (distance of inflation from 2%, inverted) and trade (port cargo vs a year ago). Each is compared with that country's own last 10 years using the median and median absolute deviation, leaving out the pandemic distortion (March 2020 to December 2021). An economy needs at least two pillars to be scored.
The world score is 80% the GDP-weighted average of economy scores and 20% global stress: oil and gas price shocks against their own 15-year history, and world port cargo vs a year ago.
60+ STRONG · 45–60 STEADY · 35–45 SOFT · <35 STRESSED
The formulas
Sources, licences and status
OECD Data Explorer (CC BY 4.0) · World Bank: World Development Indicators and Commodity Price Data "Pink Sheet" (CC BY 4.0) · IMF World Economic Outlook via DBnomics · Eurostat · European Central Bank reference rates · Bank for International Settlements policy rates · U.S. Department of the Treasury (Fiscal Data, daily yield curves) · Federal Reserve Bank of New York (effective fed funds rate) · Ember monthly electricity data (CC BY 4.0) · U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (public domain) · IMF PortWatch (port and chokepoint activity from satellite ship tracking). Port data lags, so the latest 10 days are excluded. Figures are reproduced as published or transformed (year-over-year changes, ratios, scores) by this site; sources are not responsible for these transformations.